Impossible possible? I don't think I've yet envisioned anything which is of that nature. Hopefully, through whatever I'm doing, the larger picture, the black swan, would emerge.

Making the impossible possible! Nimish Adani :)

Anyways would disagree with the argument of wikipedia being a black swan! simply because black swan represents unexpended possibilities not foreseen. Wikipedia is more like the invention of an envisioned process. A process which most people thought would be impossible.

You don't start up "x" number of businesses with any such calculations. You do something that you feel convinced about. Even if it means the others consider it impossible. The probability of it working may be 1 in a billion to the outside world but you believe in it and so you go ahead.

So to answer your question directly, I wouldn't build a) b) c) d). I would build a business with a probability of success tending to 1 - as perceived by me.

Absolutely. Here's another way to put it -

Given a choice which type of business would you want to build:
a) 10 million business with 10% probability of success
b) 100 million business with 1% probability of success
c) 1 billion business with 0.1% probability of success
d) 10 billion business with 0.01% probability of success

Payout is same in all the cases, if you look at it mathematically.

The point being that there are going to be a lot more of these black swans.

I think it's a black swan ....... Easy to explain in the hindsight but very difficult to predict and plan for....

I wouldn't bet my business on my ability to build something that needs strong community participation